MRNABy Calypso Research7 min read

Moderna (MRNA) Q4 2025 Earnings Analysis

Vaccine Revenue Takes a Shot, Down 29.1% in Q4

Key Takeaways

Moderna (MRNA) reported Q4 2025 earnings with revenue of $678M, representing a -29.1% year-over-year change. The stock moved N/A on earnings day.

The bull case: A diversified late-stage pipeline led by INT, expanding respiratory portfolio with MNEXT Spike and combos, and de-risking via global partnerships drive a return to revenue growth and eventual cash flow breakeven despite near-term U.S. flu uncertainty.

The bear case: Regulatory setbacks in U.S. flu, potential delays or disappointments in INT and other oncology readouts, and reliance on still-evolving COVID and norovirus markets could prolong heavy cash burn and prevent Moderna from achieving its targeted financial inflection.

Financial Highlights

  • Revenue: $678M (-29.1% YoY)
  • Gross Profit: $226M (33.3% margin, +10.6% YoY)
  • Operating Income: $-857M (-126.4% margin, +3.9% YoY)
  • Net Income: $-826M
  • TTM Revenue: $1.9B

Stock Performance

  • Earnings Day Move: N/A
  • Year-to-Date: +36.8%
  • 1-Year Return: +18.1%
  • vs. S&P 500 (since earnings): +68.1%
  • vs. Nasdaq (since earnings): +70.8%

View live MRNA data, AI chat, and interactive debates on Calypso →

What Management Said

Here are the key debates and direct quotes from Moderna's Q4 2025 earnings call:

U.S. Flu RTF, Regulatory Uncertainty, and 2028 Cash Flow Breakeven

Sentiment: Mixed

"As relates to the U.S. timing, we really need to engage with the FDA in the Type A meeting... until we have that Type A meeting, we will not really know how quickly we can get moving forward with the 1010 file in the U.S. as we have been doing outside the U.S." — Stephen Hoge
"Without understanding the resolution of what is next for our flu product, it is a little bit difficult to comment at this time... there are really still so many scenarios that could happen here, Terence, that it is a little bit too early to tell." — James Mock

INT (Individualized Cancer Therapy) – Melanoma Pivotal Trial, OS Data, and Multi‑Tumor Strategy

Sentiment: Positive

"INT for melanoma, the adjuvant melanoma study, is one that we are confident will read out this year... it is an event-driven trial, and so it depends upon the accrual of those events... it is going to be a busy year for us over the next number of months." — Stephen Hoge
"If you ask me where do I think the read-through of that is, I think it is clearly, we hope, into the phase 3 adjuvant melanoma study... if it works, we see that there." — Stephen Hoge

Flu and Flu+COVID Combo (mRNA‑1010 and 1083) – U.S. vs. Ex‑U.S. Path, Data Package, and Strain Selection Advantage

Sentiment: Positive

"We were holding back on refiling the combo vaccine until we had completed some portion of the review of the flu vaccine... that is now gated on, again, the feedback from the Type A meeting... and then we would be able to provide more clarity on the flu COVID program and refiling there." — Stephen Hoge
"We had a phase 3 study for the mRNA-1010 file... in that study... we saw 27% superior relative vaccine efficacy compared to the standard dose control... at 27%, we felt very good that we were in line... with Fluzone... 24%... and Flublok... 30%." — Stephen Hoge

Cash Burn, Higher‑Than‑Expected Year‑End Cash, and Cost Levers

Sentiment: Positive

"Since then, revenue essentially came in online... and cash costs came in at $4.3 [billion]. So we beat by $1,200,000,000... On top of that, we took $600,000,000 of the initial draw from the loan... Our capital expenditures were $100,000,000 less... and then terrific performance on working capital from the team." — James Mock
"We have a ton of momentum from a cost perspective, and we have a lot of opportunities for growth. So at this point, without knowing resolution to what is going to happen on flu, I think it is a little too early to tell." — James Mock

COVID and Respiratory Franchise Durability – MNEXT Spike, European Re‑Entry, and Combo Upside

Sentiment: Mixed

"MNEXT Spike had a very successful launch in 2025... with 24% of the total U.S. retail market and 34% of the retail market among adults aged 65 and older... Looking ahead to 2026, we expect to continue to drive the uptake of MNEXT Spike in the United States." — Stephen Hoge
"We do believe that the current market is, as we have shared, approximately 700,000,000 shots today... We do believe that market will be larger than that... and we do hope to get a sizable share. We think MNEXT Spike will be a very competitive product profile in that market." — Stephen Hoge

Bull Case

A diversified late-stage pipeline led by INT, expanding respiratory portfolio with MNEXT Spike and combos, and de-risking via global partnerships drive a return to revenue growth and eventual cash flow breakeven despite near-term U.S. flu uncertainty.

Bear Case

Regulatory setbacks in U.S. flu, potential delays or disappointments in INT and other oncology readouts, and reliance on still-evolving COVID and norovirus markets could prolong heavy cash burn and prevent Moderna from achieving its targeted financial inflection.

Looking Ahead

With revenue declining -29.1% year-over-year, investors will be watching for signs of a turnaround at Moderna, particularly around u.S. Flu RTF, Regulatory Uncertainty, and 2028 Cash Flow Breakeven. With operating margins at -126.4%, margin trends will remain a focal point. Market participants will be looking for clearer signals in the upcoming quarter, and the next earnings report will be a key catalyst for the stock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What was Moderna's revenue in Q4 2025?

Moderna reported Q4 2025 revenue of $678M, representing a -29.1% year-over-year change.

What is the bull case for MRNA stock?

The bull case for MRNA centers on: A diversified late-stage pipeline led by INT, expanding respiratory portfolio with MNEXT Spike and combos, and de-risking via global partnerships drive a return to revenue growth and eventual cash flow breakeven despite near-term U.S. flu uncertainty.

What is the bear case for MRNA stock?

The bear case for MRNA centers on: Regulatory setbacks in U.S. flu, potential delays or disappointments in INT and other oncology readouts, and reliance on still-evolving COVID and norovirus markets could prolong heavy cash burn and prevent Moderna from achieving its targeted financial inflection.

Browse all 400+ earnings reports →

Learn More

Analyze MRNA in Real Time

This is a static snapshot. For live financial data, AI-powered chat, and interactive earnings debates for Moderna and 400+ other stocks, explore the full platform.

Open MRNA on Calypso →

Calypso is an AI-powered equity research platform used by investment teams to cut earnings research time by over 80%.