AMGNBy Calypso Research7 min read

Amgen (AMGN) Q4 2025 Earnings Analysis

Meritide's Magic Lifts Amgen 8.2% to New Heights

Key Takeaways

Amgen (AMGN) reported Q4 2025 earnings with revenue of $9.9B, representing a +8.9% year-over-year change. The stock moved +8.2% on earnings day.

The bull case: Amgen leverages a differentiated long-acting obesity/diabetes platform with Meritide, reinforced by Repatha, opasiran, Aplisna, TEPEZZA, and a scaled biosimilar engine to drive durable double-digit growth through the decade.

The bear case: Regulatory and competitive risks across Tavneos, TEPEZZA, Repatha, and Eylea biosimilars, combined with execution risk in tough autoimmune indications and an unproven obesity franchise, limit upside to consensus growth expectations and margin expansion.

Financial Highlights

  • Revenue: $9.9B (+8.9% YoY)
  • Gross Profit: $8.1B (81.9% margin, +16.2% YoY)
  • Operating Income: $3.9B (39.8% margin, +14.4% YoY)
  • Net Income: $1.3B
  • TTM Revenue: $36.8B

Stock Performance

  • Earnings Day Move: +8.2%
  • Year-to-Date: +15.8%
  • 1-Year Return: +22.5%
  • vs. S&P 500 (since earnings): +4.1%
  • vs. Nasdaq (since earnings): +6.9%

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What Management Said

Here are the key debates and direct quotes from Amgen's Q4 2025 earnings call:

Scope and Competitive Positioning of Meritide in Obesity & Type 2 Diabetes (including maintenance / less-frequent dosing)

Sentiment: Positive

"Our confidence continues to build in Meritide as a differentiated treatment for obesity, type two diabetes, and obesity-related conditions... Meritide's strong efficacy, infrequent dosing, and excellent tolerability at target dose have the potential to further enhance the patient experience and therefore treatment persistence." — James E. Bradner
"We see it as both an effective product to start patients on to get to weight goal and also for patients who to receive the medical of their treatment need to be on these therapies for multiple years... this opportunity for maritide's profile to deliver a convenient, well-tolerated, efficacious regimen that could be monthly, could be every eight weeks, and could be quarterly." — Murdo Gordon

Breadth and Durability of Amgen’s Obesity/Cardiometabolic Portfolio Beyond Meritide

Sentiment: Positive

"Internally, we have another clinical stage asset, called AMG five thirteen... And preclinically, we have a rather exciting set of rising programs that are both incretin based as well as non-incretin based... I think you should expect us to be competing broadly in the field, Michael." — James E. Bradner
"It shouldn't be lost on any of us that Repatha, opaziran, and Meritide together would represent a very compelling set of cardiometabolic medicines to expand our leadership in the treatment of serious chronic diseases well into the next decade." — Robert A. Bradway

Repatha Growth Trajectory and Competitive Risk from Merck’s Oral PCSK9 and Other Lipid Agents

Sentiment: Positive

"We are excited by the landmark data that were revealed at the American Heart Association last year in November... we can now clearly promote Repatha for the prevention of first heart attack or first stroke in a high-risk patient population and or a high-risk primary prevention population." — Murdo Gordon
"We've maintained all along that there is a lot of room in this market for other therapies to come in, but they will not have the data package and profile that Repatha has established and we'll continue to remind prescribers and others about that." — Murdo Gordon

Aplisna (Eplisna) Rare Disease Opportunity, Label Expansion, and Pipeline Extension (e.g., CIDP, autoimmune hepatitis)

Sentiment: Positive

"Right now, we estimate the diagnosed population to be in the neighborhood 35,000... The Plasma is doing extremely well in its uptake. In IgG4-related diseases. We see a nice breadth of prescribing across a number of different specialties that see these patients because of the end organ involvement." — Murdo Gordon
"Now seeing efficacy of aplisna in so many immunoglobulin related disorders like IgG4 related disease, like myasthenia gravis, the chance to bring it to additional autoantibody mediated immune conditions is just a great chance to help patients with these severe diseases." — James E. Bradner

TEPEZZA Franchise Durability and Competitive Landscape in Thyroid Eye Disease (TED)

Sentiment: Positive

"TEPEZZA is proving to be just a very important medicine. For the management of thyroid eye disease... We have an ongoing subcutaneous Phase III clinical study in moderate to severe active TED... and we expect to complete this study in the second half of this year." — James E. Bradner
"We are expanding our prescribing base to include endocrinologists... we expect that we'll continue to broaden our treatment of the low clinical activity score patients while maintaining our share of the higher clinical activity score patients... overall, TEPEZZA will be a a good growth driver for us this year." — Murdo Gordon

Bull Case

Amgen leverages a differentiated long-acting obesity/diabetes platform with Meritide, reinforced by Repatha, opasiran, Aplisna, TEPEZZA, and a scaled biosimilar engine to drive durable double-digit growth through the decade.

Bear Case

Regulatory and competitive risks across Tavneos, TEPEZZA, Repatha, and Eylea biosimilars, combined with execution risk in tough autoimmune indications and an unproven obesity franchise, limit upside to consensus growth expectations and margin expansion.

Looking Ahead

Investors will be closely watching Amgen's next quarterly report for continued execution, particularly around scope and Competitive Positioning of Meritide in Obesity & Type 2 Diabetes (including maintenance / less-frequent dosing). With operating margins at 39.8%, margin trends will remain a focal point. The market's positive reaction on earnings day suggests confidence in management's direction, and the next earnings report will be a key catalyst for the stock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What was Amgen's revenue in Q4 2025?

Amgen reported Q4 2025 revenue of $9.9B, representing a +8.9% year-over-year change.

Did Amgen beat earnings expectations in Q4 2025?

The stock rose +8.2% on earnings day, suggesting the results met or exceeded market expectations. The current bull case centers on: Amgen leverages a differentiated long-acting obesity/diabetes platform with Meritide, reinforced by Repatha, opasiran, Aplisna, TEPEZZA, and a scaled biosimilar engine to drive durable double-digit growth through the decade.

What is the bull case for AMGN stock?

The bull case for AMGN centers on: Amgen leverages a differentiated long-acting obesity/diabetes platform with Meritide, reinforced by Repatha, opasiran, Aplisna, TEPEZZA, and a scaled biosimilar engine to drive durable double-digit growth through the decade.

What is the bear case for AMGN stock?

The bear case for AMGN centers on: Regulatory and competitive risks across Tavneos, TEPEZZA, Repatha, and Eylea biosimilars, combined with execution risk in tough autoimmune indications and an unproven obesity franchise, limit upside to consensus growth expectations and margin expansion.

How has AMGN stock performed since its Q4 2025 earnings?

AMGN moved +8.2% on the day of its Q4 2025 earnings report, outperforming the S&P 500 by +4.1% since earnings. Year-to-date, the stock has returned +15.8%.

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