BMYBy Calypso Research8 min read

Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) Q4 2025 Earnings Analysis

BMY's Revenue Rises but Risks Loom Larger at $12.5B

Key Takeaways

Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) reported Q4 2025 earnings with revenue of $12.5B, representing a +1.3% year-over-year change. The stock moved +3.3% on earnings day.

The bull case: A rich wave of pivotal readouts, disciplined BD focused on core franchises, and durable growth from Eliquis, Opdualag, Reblozyl, and emerging assets like Milvexian, Admilparant, CELMoDs, and CoBinfy can collectively offset LOE headwinds and drive sustained mid-single-digit or better growth into the 2030s.

The bear case: Execution, clinical, and competitive risks across the crowded AFib, IPF, myeloma, and neuropsychiatric markets, combined with looming Eliquis LOE and potential pricing pressure, could lead to underwhelming pipeline conversion, margin strain despite cost savings, and a structurally lower growth and earnings profile post-2026.

Financial Highlights

  • Revenue: $12.5B (+1.3% YoY)
  • Gross Profit: $8.4B (67.2% margin, +7.1% YoY)
  • Operating Income: $1.4B (11.4% margin, -9.2% YoY)
  • Net Income: $1.1B
  • TTM Revenue: $48.2B

Stock Performance

  • Earnings Day Move: +3.3%
  • Year-to-Date: +14.6%
  • 1-Year Return: +5.8%
  • vs. S&P 500 (since earnings): +26.5%
  • vs. Nasdaq (since earnings): +29.6%

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What Management Said

Here are the key debates and direct quotes from Bristol-Myers Squibb Company's Q4 2025 earnings call:

Scale, Risk, and Commercial Impact of the 2026–2028 Pivotal Pipeline (Milvexian, CELMoDs, Admilparant, Pemigatinib/Zolacel, etc.)

Sentiment: Positive

"As you know, we have a slew of data readouts coming this year, now just a few months away… we could have over 10 Phase three data readouts this year alone with more coming in '27 and then another big slew of them coming in 2028." — Christopher Boerner
"So as you said, four different therapeutic areas where we'll have a major readout and these are very transformative regimen… all of this is moving at pace… these are very transformative regimen." — Cristian Massacesi

Eliquis: 2026 Double-Digit Growth, 2027 Step-Down, and IRA/Ex-US LOE Mechanics

Sentiment: Mixed

"The roughly 40% WAC reduction eliminates inflationary penalties or CPI penalties of statutory rebates that have been accumulating over many years for the brand… taken together, the continued increase in Eliquis market share in the United States coupled with these net pricing changes they're gonna enable Eliquis to be an important driver of growth this year." — Adam Lenkowsky
"So what we said this year is that we expect Eliquis to grow 10%, 15%… and as you think about next year… you should expect a similar step down about 1.5% to $2 billion from $26,000,000,000 to $27,000,000,000 which is consistent with the step down consensus has now." — David Elkins

Milvexian in AFib and Secondary Stroke Prevention: Clinical Differentiation vs Eliquis and Read-Through from Competitors

Sentiment: Positive

"We remain blinded, but what the DMC is telling us and what we see in a blinded fashion in terms of bleeding rates, give us confidence that we are still very much on target to achieve the benefit that we hope… showing that Eliquis and [Milvexian] similar in terms of efficacy, but that [Milvexian] can bring a benefit in reducing importantly the bleeding risks." — Cristian Massacesi
"We believe that [Milvexian] has the potential to replace first-generation DOACs… fear of bleeding continues to be the main reason why clinicians hold back from using factor tens… we believe a differentiated bleeding profile will drive demand versus standard of care." — Adam Lenkowsky

Business Development Strategy: Pace, Focus Areas, and Dependence on Upcoming Readouts

Sentiment: Mixed

"The good news here is that we're in a very strong position as you alluded to with the late-stage pipeline. We don't need to chase deals… if an opportunity is in an area that we know well scientifically where we can add clinical or commercial value… we obviously have the financial ability and the muscle to." — Christopher Boerner
"We're really looking at opportunities to build breadth and depth in our existing therapeutic area… these are areas we obviously know well. We can assess the science and commercial opportunities… and it's also an area… that we can best add value from a patient company and shareholder standpoint." — Christopher Boerner

Admilparant (LPA1) in IPF/PPF: Can BMY Redefine Standard of Care vs Tolerability‑Challenged Legacy Therapies?

Sentiment: Positive

"IPF and [PPF] are progressive pulmonary diseases… there's significant need for newer therapies that provide greater and tolerability… we believe [Admilparant] could redefine the standard of care in pulmonary fibrosis, offering improved efficacy and improved tolerability profile." — Adam Lenkowsky
"In Phase II [Admilparant] had a very good reduction of the risk of decline of FVC. Sixty percent in IPF and more than seventy percent in [PPF]… we are currently running the Phase three studies… and in a blinded [fashion] we didn't see any rate [of hypotension/syncope] that raised any concern." — Cristian Massacesi

Bull Case

A rich wave of pivotal readouts, disciplined BD focused on core franchises, and durable growth from Eliquis, Opdualag, Reblozyl, and emerging assets like Milvexian, Admilparant, CELMoDs, and CoBinfy can collectively offset LOE headwinds and drive sustained mid-single-digit or better growth into the 2030s.

Bear Case

Execution, clinical, and competitive risks across the crowded AFib, IPF, myeloma, and neuropsychiatric markets, combined with looming Eliquis LOE and potential pricing pressure, could lead to underwhelming pipeline conversion, margin strain despite cost savings, and a structurally lower growth and earnings profile post-2026.

Looking Ahead

Investors will be closely watching Bristol-Myers Squibb Company's next quarterly report for continued execution, particularly around scale, Risk, and Commercial Impact of the 2026–2028 Pivotal Pipeline (Milvexian, CELMoDs, Admilparant, Pemigatinib/Zolacel, etc.). With operating margins at 11.4%, margin trends will remain a focal point. The market's positive reaction on earnings day suggests confidence in management's direction, and the next earnings report will be a key catalyst for the stock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What was Bristol-Myers Squibb Company's revenue in Q4 2025?

Bristol-Myers Squibb Company reported Q4 2025 revenue of $12.5B, representing a +1.3% year-over-year change.

Did Bristol-Myers Squibb Company beat earnings expectations in Q4 2025?

The stock rose +3.3% on earnings day, suggesting the results met or exceeded market expectations. The current bull case centers on: A rich wave of pivotal readouts, disciplined BD focused on core franchises, and durable growth from Eliquis, Opdualag, Reblozyl, and emerging assets like Milvexian, Admilparant, CELMoDs, and CoBinfy can collectively offset LOE headwinds and drive sustained mid-single-digit or better growth into the 2030s.

What is the bull case for BMY stock?

The bull case for BMY centers on: A rich wave of pivotal readouts, disciplined BD focused on core franchises, and durable growth from Eliquis, Opdualag, Reblozyl, and emerging assets like Milvexian, Admilparant, CELMoDs, and CoBinfy can collectively offset LOE headwinds and drive sustained mid-single-digit or better growth into the 2030s.

What is the bear case for BMY stock?

The bear case for BMY centers on: Execution, clinical, and competitive risks across the crowded AFib, IPF, myeloma, and neuropsychiatric markets, combined with looming Eliquis LOE and potential pricing pressure, could lead to underwhelming pipeline conversion, margin strain despite cost savings, and a structurally lower growth and earnings profile post-2026.

How has BMY stock performed since its Q4 2025 earnings?

BMY moved +3.3% on the day of its Q4 2025 earnings report, outperforming the S&P 500 by +26.5% since earnings. Year-to-date, the stock has returned +14.6%.

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